If you've been following me on twitter (@ericbussell), I've been monitoring some interesting employment and growth data on IL vs. our surrounding states.  It turns out we have the highest unemployment (tied with KY) and the lowest population growth in the last decade (2000-2010). 

It is safe to say that jobs matter.  When our state is under performing vs. other states, our opportunity cost is staggering.  If our performance was competitive with IN, my analysis shows that the IL economy would benefit from an additional $11B in payroll.  Would an additional $11B be good for our economy?  I think it would. 

IL Unemployment = 9.5%
IN Unemployment = 8.5%
WI Unemployment = 7.8%
IA Unemployment = 6.0%
MO Unemployment = 8.8%
KY Unemployment = 9.5%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.html

IL 10 year growth rate = 3.3%
IN 10 year growth rate = 6.6%
WI 10 year growth rate = 6.0%
IA 10 year growth rate = 4.1%
MO 10 year growth rate = 7.0%
KY 10 year growth rate =  7.4%

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/illinois/

Number of Unemployed = 627,762 (Dept of Numbers)
IL Total Population = 12,830,632 (2010 census)
IL Total Population 2000 = 12,419,658 (census)
Total employable people = # of unemployed/unemployment rate = 6,608,021
Total employed in IL = 5,980,259 = Total employable people * unemployment rate
% of employable people vs. population = 51.5%
IL average earnings per capita = $28,469 (census)

How many more jobs would there be if our growth rate and unemployment matched surrounding states?
= [2000 IL population * (1+other states 10 yr growth rate) * IL % of employable people * other states unemployment rate] - number of employed in IL

IL (IN) = 388,240
IL (WI) = 603,973
IL (IA) = 616,654
IL (MO) = 595,383
IL (KY) = 591,576

How much more payroll would be injected into the economy each year if our growth and employment performance matched surrounding states?
= number of additional jobs created * IL per capita income
 
IL (IN) = $11,063,286,274
IL (WI) = $17,210,818,148
IL (IA) = $17,572,170,148
IL (MO) = $16,966,025,329
IL (KY) = $16,857,563,280

How many more jobs would there be if if we only compared unemployment rates?
= (number of employable people in IL * other states unemployment rate) - (number of employable people in IL * IL unemployment)

IL (IN) = 66,080
IL (WI) = 112,336
IL (IA) = 231,281
IL (MO) = 46,256
IL (KY) = 0

So how much more payroll would be injected into the economy each if we only compared unemployment rates?
= number of additional jobs * earnings per capita

IL (IN) = $1,883,021,679
IL (WI) = $3,201,136,855
IL (IA) = $6,590.575,877
IL (MO) = $1,318,115,175
IL (KY) = $0


job stats.xls (note in xls that pop growth is from census and not cnn as the xls falsely claims.