In the N-G: Jim Gould restaurant closes after 6.5years. 

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/business/economy/2011-12-28/downtown-champaign-restaurant-closes.html

In May, the N-G ran this story about changes that were planned to keep the restaurant open:

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/business/miscellaneous/2011-05-05/changes-ahead-champaign-restaurant.html

TJ Blakeman, Executive Director of the Champaign City Partnership said, "Having critical mass only attracts more people to the area..."

This follows up an interesting discussion by Matt Wavering (http://halfwayinteresting.com/Pages/ChampaignCounty/tabid/89/entryid/795/Retail-Its-Alive.aspx) who mentioned that Retail is alive.  

I find TJ's comment very interesting.  Critical mass is a sociodynamic term to describe the existence of a sufficient amount of adopters of an innovation in a social system such that the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining and creates further growth.   Has the downtown food scene become self-sustaining?  Or are the additional food establishments cannibalizing the existing ones?   I suspect there are reasonable arguments on both sides, but Jim Gould closing is certainly not a win for Downtown Champaign.

If TJ's argument is true, I would expect that same store sales for restaurants vs. last year would be greater than last year in downtown.  A quick test of that theory would be to ask Farrens how their sales look vs. last year.   I love Farrens--great food--even better service--I am curious to see if the critical mass argument is accurate.  Just looking at aggregate sales tax figures does not paint an accurate picture if individual business are less likely to succeed.   If TJ is correct, I suspect same store sales would be up, restaurants would be renewing leases, and the outlook would be stable.   Maybe Jim Gould is an exception and that is actually what is happening?

One restaurant closing is not a tell-all.  Will the new restaurants opening now be open in 6 years?  Is expanding more breweries/restaurants into locations like Blue Line going to help downtown business by providing critical mass, or will it just cannibalize existing businesses?  

Downtown Champaign has taken some serious steps forward in a positive direction with the new restaurants at M2 and the potential of a new hotel across the street:
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/business/economy/2011-09-02/new-owner-metropolitan-site-wants-hotel-there.html.  Maybe one day in the near future we'll be seeing headlines:
- Downtown restaurant reports sales up 8% this year!
- Downtown retailer reports holiday sales up 10% this year!

I'd like to think these types of success stories are out there...because success is attractive.